The government stuck to the goal of achieving economic growth of 4 percent this year, despite the difficult economic situation, both internationally and locally, which led to inflation rising to record levels, which affected the purchasing power of Moroccans.
The 2023 Finance Law expected the national economic growth rate to reach 4 percent, and after three months and changes in economic data, the government has not changed its target, as it confirmed its expectations in a circular addressed to the Prime Minister. Minister, this month, to ministers on the preparation of proposals related to the programming of the budget for 2024-2025-2026.
Contrary to the government’s ambitious expectations, Bank Al-Maghrib said in its latest forecasts for March that economic growth this year will not exceed 2.6 percent, with a grain harvest of 55 million centners compared to the previous year. government expectations of 75 million centners.
The Prime Minister’s Circular indicated that the expected slowdown in global trade growth to around 2.4 percent in 2023, down from 5.4 percent last year, would negatively impact the rate of growth in global demand destined for Morocco to stabilize at level 2. 5 percent instead of 4 percent last year.
Government data show that economic growth will be supported by a 12.9 percent increase in agricultural value added, even as the current growing season is going through a critical period marked by an unprecedented heat wave that is threatening crops, especially cereals.
On the other hand, the government’s push for growth to 4 percent is facing the consequences of tightening monetary policy at Al-Maghrib Bank, which has decided to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation, which has hit 6.6. percent last year and broke February’s record of 10.1 percent.
Raising the main interest rate means curbing consumption and investment to reduce demand in an attempt to cope with inflation, which means losing points on expected growth rates, making sustaining higher growth in an inflationary environment a difficult equation.
Striving to stimulate growth
The circular, signed by Prime Minister Aziz Ahannouch, emphasized “commitment to the commitment represented by increased growth rates and a policy approach of compatibility between restoring the fiscal margin to ensure financing and sustainability of structural reforms and maintaining the macroeconomic balance by reducing the budget deficit and stabilizing the debt ratio.”
The government assumes stability in the international environment to achieve an estimated 4 percent annual average growth rate over the period 2024-2026, while keeping inflation within an annual average of 2.4 percent and limiting the budget deficit to 4 percent. , 3.5 percent and 3 percent over the next three years.
To achieve the above, the government relies on the control of staff spending, car rental, rental, training and equipping of the administrative headquarters, transportation, movement inside and outside Morocco, and research, in addition to improving the efficiency of investments, giving priority to projects that are underway. . the process is being completed, especially those signed before the king or concluded with international institutions or donor countries.
